Victoria’s 800,000-Home Pipe Dream: No Trades, No Plan, No Chance
/The Albanese Government has pledged to build 1.2 million new homes by 2029. Of those, a staggering 800,000 are expected to be delivered by Victoria. That’s two-thirds of the national target assigned to a state that is currently struggling to fix potholes, let alone manage a housing revolution.
The real kicker? There’s no workforce to build them.
According to a recent report by News.com.au, the housing and construction industry is staring down the barrel of an unprecedented skills shortage. There are already tens of thousands of unfilled trades positions across the country, with carpenters, bricklayers, plumbers, electricians and tilers all in dangerously short supply. And yet Victoria continues to trumpet its “bold” housing commitments with no concrete plan for how the actual concrete will be poured.
The Numbers Don’t Lie — and They Don’t Add Up
The Property Council and Master Builders Association have both issued stark warnings. For the Albanese plan to succeed, we would need to nearly double our national housing output in just four years. But even before we start dreaming about cranes in the sky, we’re facing a labour crunch that’s already crippling timelines and blowing out costs.
Let’s be clear: this is not a future problem. It’s a crisis that’s already here. The average wait time for a qualified tradie has blown out to weeks, sometimes months. Building approvals are slowing. Construction insolvencies are rising. And while the federal government may have the right intention, Victoria is once again acting like the teacher’s pet who forgot their homework.
Victoria’s “Plan” Is Nothing But Announcements
We’ve had plenty of headlines. Talk of rezoning, density targets, and “strategic sites” to be unlocked. But the fundamental ingredients for housing—land, labour, materials, and money—are nowhere near aligned.
Instead of tackling the hard reality of the skills shortage, the Victorian Government continues to funnel time and money into bureaucratic layers of housing authorities, planning schemes, and ‘big idea’ announcements. Meanwhile, TAFEs remain under-resourced, apprenticeships are undervalued, and immigration pathways for skilled tradies remain choked with red tape.
It’s one thing to dream big. It’s another to have no grasp of delivery.
Where Are the Tradies Going to Come From?
To even stand a chance of hitting the targets, Victoria would need to recruit, train or import thousands of additional workers across multiple trades within the next 12 to 24 months. That includes plumbers, roofers, sparkies, tilers, concreters, painters, and everything in between.
But the pipeline just isn’t there.
Apprenticeship numbers are flatlining.
Completion rates are abysmal.
Many tradies are retiring, not entering.
Immigration settings are misaligned with the actual skill shortages.
And with the cost of building escalating, smaller builders are folding—further shrinking the already overworked and overstretched construction sector.
Victorian Property Settlements: Eyes Wide Open
As licensed conveyancers in Victoria, we don’t just review contracts—we watch how these policies play out in real time. We see buyers left waiting months for completion. We see developers struggling to get sites off the ground. We see the dream of more housing pushed further out of reach while the government keeps printing press releases instead of permits.
Our advice? Don’t get caught up in the spin.
If you’re a buyer, investor, or developer in Victoria, you need realistic timelines, honest assessments, and contractual protections in place. Bold government targets won’t help you if your slab’s delayed for six months because there’s no crew.
Final Thoughts
Victoria might promise 800,000 new homes, but without tradespeople, it’s nothing more than a fantasy. The government has no plan, no timeline, and no understanding of the actual mechanics of construction.
Until that changes, the only thing being built in Victoria is more political theatre.