Geelong vs Gold Coast: Which Market Should Investors Back in 2025?

/

Geelong vs Gold Coast: Which Market Should Investors Back in 2025?

As Australia's property market recalibrates in the wake of inflationary pressure, infrastructure expansion, and shifting internal migration, two regional powerhouses have emerged as front-runners for investors: Geelong in Victoria and the Gold Coast in Queensland.

Both markets present appealing prospects, but they come with different conditions, growth drivers, and government frameworks. Below, we break down how they stack up against each other and what investors need to consider before committing capital.

1. Population Growth and Demand Drivers

Geelong: Geelong is now the fastest-growing regional city in Australia, claiming 9.3% of the country's internal migration. The Victorian Government forecasts that 128,600 new dwellings will be needed in Greater Geelong by 2051, driven by a combination of lifestyle appeal, affordability, and its strategic location within commuting distance of Melbourne.

Gold Coast: The Gold Coast continues to attract significant interstate migration, particularly from NSW and Victoria. Lifestyle, climate, and improved digital connectivity (enabling remote work) are all key factors. The city is expected to reach 1 million residents by 2041.

2. Infrastructure and Economic Development

Geelong:

  • Geelong Convention Centre development

  • Barwon Women's and Children's Hospital expansion

  • Commuter rail upgrades (though high-speed rail remains speculative)

  • Increasing state government investment in health and housing

Gold Coast:

  • 2032 Olympic infrastructure investment

  • Light rail extensions (Broadbeach to Burleigh and beyond)

  • M1 and airport upgrades

  • Strong tourism, construction, and education sectors driving the local economy

3. Property Price Trends and Affordability

Geelong:

  • Median house price approx. $775,000

  • Affordable compared to inner Melbourne

  • Fringe estates like Armstrong Creek showing strong interest from first-home buyers and investors

Gold Coast:

  • Median house price approx. $975,000

  • Premium prices in beachfront suburbs but good value remains inland (e.g. Coomera, Ormeau)

  • Unit market still affordable with high short-stay yield potential

4. Rental Yields and Vacancy Rates

Geelong:

  • Rental yields between 4.5% and 5.2%

  • Tight vacancy rates but potential risk of oversupply in some fringe areas

Gold Coast:

  • Yields often between 5.5% and 6.5%, especially in units

  • Very tight vacancy rates (<1%)

  • Strong short-term rental demand, particularly in coastal precincts

5. Taxation and Regulation

Geelong / Victoria:

  • Increasingly harsh property tax regime:

    • Land Tax

    • Windfall Gains Tax (rezoning)

    • Vacant Residential Land Tax

  • Division 296 Super Tax to apply to unrealised gains in SMSFs from July 2025

Gold Coast / Queensland:

  • No windfall gains tax

  • Land tax comparatively moderate

  • Introduction of a short-stay levy but still modest

  • Greater consistency and investor-friendliness in policy

6. Climate and Environmental Risks

Geelong:

  • Low flood or cyclone risk

  • Considered stable from an environmental risk perspective

Gold Coast:

  • Prone to coastal storms and flooding

  • Insurance premiums rising for low-lying and beachfront areas

  • Government investment in resilience is ongoing but long-term costs are a consideration

What Investors Should Watch For

Geelong:

  • Rapid growth in fringe estates must be matched by infrastructure

  • State taxes may erode net yield

  • Watch for rezoning impacts and planning overlays

Gold Coast:

  • Regulatory pressure on short-stay accommodation tightening

  • Rising insurance costs for certain suburbs

  • Maintain awareness of Olympic infrastructure’s long-term impact

Conclusion: Which is the Better Investment?

If your focus is yield, tourism-driven short stays, and tax consistency, the Gold Coast is arguably the stronger investment choice in 2025.

If you’re seeking long-term capital growth, backed by migration trends and infrastructure, and can manage Victoria’s increasing tax burden, Geelong still offers excellent value, especially for SMSFs or intergenerational holdings.

The best investment decision will ultimately depend on your risk appetite, preferred holding structure, and time horizon.

If you're considering an investment in either region, reach out to us for a detailed, suburb-level comparison and assistance with the conveyancing process.

David Dawn
Licensed Conveyancer
Victorian Property Settlements
PO Box 11220, Frankston VIC 3199
Email: david@quick32.com